No, I’m not dead. Yes, I know it’s been over a month since I posted anything worthwhile. Hopefully that will change.
I am currently in the midst of making some major decisions about the direction of my business, so that has been occupying my time. I’m also now in charge of audio and computer stuff at church, which took an immense bite out of my time because I had to figure out on my own how all the sound stuff at church worked together because nobody else knew everything about the system. Finally, I’ve been trying to spent more time with my wife and daughter despite all of the above and all my other commitments. Fun times …
This month I did manage to find my way onto television. The Hamilton County Libertarian Party staged its annual tax protest here in town, and I got interviewed since I’m now the party chair. I didn’t do so hot on camera, but I got a small sound bite (and a quote on their web site) nontheless. It’s not what I would have preferred they quoted … but oh well.
On to basic complaining …
Yesterday on the radio I heard a GWB sound bite. It went something like “We’re not in a recession … [pregnant pause] … it’s just a slowdown.”
Um, George … I think “recession” and “slowdown” essentially mean the same thing. What you said is about as logical as saying “I don’t drive a car … I drive an automobile.” Or “We’re no sailing the ocean … we’re sailing the sea.”
Next gripe … there are advertisements on WGOW for the “First Annual Southside Blues Festival.” People, people … don’t call the first ANYTHING the “first annual (fill in blank).” You’ll just look stupid if the whole endeavor goes toes up and you don’t have a second one … and of course having the event for multiple subsequent years is a qualification for something to be “annual.” MAYBE after the first year you can call the next one the “Second Annual _______” but I’d wait until the third year.
It reminds me of when one of my former churches held their “first annual missions conference and dinner” … there was no “second annual missions conference and dinner.” Or, in another vein, it reminds me of when I was on the way to the Outer Banks in 1998 and saw a sign for a restaurant that was “famous since 1996.”
That being said, I hope the blues festival is a great success and we do have it regularly. I hope to be there … it sounds like it’s going to be good.
This is the First Annual Debate of Economics…
A recession and slowdown are different in economic terms. I will not debate which one we are in now, I haven’t looked at the numbers closly enough. But a slowdown is more a lower than normal growth of the economy. A recession is negative growth of the economy. These are a little over simplified. As far as I can tell the economy is still growing but not as fast as it has in the past. It seems this is due to several factors. I beleive over speculation may be the cause, as well as bad Federal Reserve decisions. A point I heard was the fact that, for example, there is no shortage in the supply of oil but over speculation of the oil market is the cause for high gas prices. I don’t blame people for wanting to make money or suppliers for selling it for as much as they can get for it. This market is ripe for a major correction and some people are going to lose alot of money when it goes bust. It seems there are several markets that are in this situation. We may have three or four markets go bust at one time instead of the normal one, like the internet bust of the late 1990’s early 2000’s.
Aw, come one. Let me have some fun at the president’s expense. Everybody else does …
Seriously … as far as I’m concerned a recession is a depression is a slowdown. Trying to differentiate between them is pretty pointless. It just means the economy is adjusting from poor investments, etc.
Oh, I can’t resist … is there such thing as a “good Federal Reserve desision”? (Yes, I know … I did say Volker made the right decision by hiking interest rates in the late seventies.)
You can make fun of the president all you want.
I am just concerned that all the bubbles I talked about are going to burst at one time. Then the depression that happens after that will make the 1930’s look prosperous. The market can handle one, maybe two bubbles bursting but four or five will sweep way too many people into it’s wake and destroy us as a nation.
P.S. I am playing a game called Civilization and Abraham Lincoln is the leader of the Americans. Guess waht he starts out as… A despot. Thought you would enjoy that.
Well I guess the economy may be going into a recession. But everything I have heard says it will be a short one. As long as congress doesn’t screw it up, which is quite likely.
For better or worse I think we have been in a recession at least since the beginning of the year. I know, I know, definitions …
Yes, the government will probably screw it up. They’ve already made bad moves (via the Fed) by bailing out Bear Stearns and doing all sorts of crazy things to play shell games with the huge amount of bad debt floating out there. And … they are busy trying to get people to spend, spend, spend … when we’d be better off to take our bitter medicine and let the economy contract to at least a more reasonable level.
It may be short though … but I fear we’re just pushing our day of reckoning back, and when it comes, it will be hellacious.
Everybody knows I’m the most educated and correct economist on the planet (living or dead) so I’m absolutely right.
P.S. I did praise President Bush the other day for saying he’d veto the House’s braindead idea to let the Dept. of Justice sue OPEC under our anti-trust laws. As one of my profs at Southeastern said (in a serious example of mixing metaphors) … “That brick won’t hunt!”